Trajectory-Integrated Kriging Prediction of Static Formation Temperature for Ultra-Deep Well Drilling

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中文题名超深井钻井静态地层温度轨迹综合Kriging预测
作者Wang, QingchenaCAa;Jia, Wenjiea;Xu, ZhengmingaCAb;Tian, Tiana;Chen, Yuxia
作者单位aSchool of Energy Resources, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, 100083, China
刊名Processes
2025
13
No.7
摘要
The accurate prediction of static formation temperature (SFT) is essential for ensuring safety and efficiency in ultra-deep well drilling operations. Excessive downhole temperatures (>150 °C) can degrade drilling fluids, damage temperature-sensitive tools, and pose serious operational risks. Conventional methods for SFT determination—including direct measurement, temperature recovery inversion, and artificial intelligence models—are often limited by post-drilling data dependency, insufficient spatial resolution, high computational costs, or a lack of adaptability to complex wellbore geometries. In this study, we propose a new pseudo-3D Kriging interpolation framework that explicitly incorporates real wellbore trajectories to improve the spatial accuracy and applicability of pre-drilling SFT predictions. By systematically optimizing key hyperparameters (θ = [10, 10], lob = [0.1, 0.1], upb = [20, 200]) and applying a grid resolution of 100 × 100, the model demonstrates high predictive fidelity. Validation using over 5.1 million temperature data points from 113 wells in the Shunbei Oilfield reveals a relative error consistently below 5% and spatial interpolation deviations within 5 °C. The proposed approach enables high-resolution, trajectory-integrated SFT forecasting before drilling with practical computational requirements, thereby supporting proactive thermal risk mitigation and significantly enhancing operational decision-making on ultra-deep wells.

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