An approach for quantifying structural interpretation uncertainty

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中文题名一种量化结构解释不确定性的方法
作者Kellen L. Gunderson; Chris A. Guzofski
作者单位Chevron Technical Center, Houston, Texas; present address: Zanskar Geothermal & Minerals, Inc., Provo, Utah
刊名AAPG BULLETIN
2022
08
摘要
Hydrocarbon resource and risk assessments rely on subsurface structure maps generated from the interpretation of seismic reflection and well data. Commonly, the uncertainty in these maps is poorly quantified and communicated, primarily because there has not been a holistic workflow that addresses all aspects of structural interpretation uncertainty, including the geological hypotheses underlying a structure map. Unquantified and uncommunicated uncertainty can lead to exploration well failures or poorly designed field development plans. Here, we present three parallel workflows that quantify structural interpretation uncertainty by addressing the following questions. (1) How much does a structure map rely on a conceptual geologic model in its creation? (2) What is the three-dimensional positional uncertainty range of the horizon and faults in a structure map, given a choice in conceptual geological model? (3) What is the uncertainty in the conceptual geologic model itself? The products of these workflows are a series of maps that, in summation, address these aspects of structural interpretation uncertainty and can be used to quantify and communicate trap geometry predrill uncertainty or uncertainty in development scenarios.

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